We’re running a game stack in our Week 12 DraftKings GPP lineup that is sure to be popular this week while looking for contrarian angles for the rest of our NFL DFS picks. Yup, Bucs-Falcons.
Each component of our Drew Brees stack hit the end zone for last week’s GPP/tournament lineup lineup, but alas, we subbed out Deebo Samuel once it became apparent that Emmanuel Sanders would start. Bamboozled.
Playing under a $50K salary cap for Sunday main slate contests.
QB Matt Ryan, Falcons vs. Buccaneers ($6,700)
We’re attacking the one game total north of 50 for this week. You can build with Ryan or go the Jameis Winston route at $500 cheaper, though stacking Ryan gets you a Bucs defense allowing the third-most DK points to quarterbacks and the second-most pass yards per game.
RB Derrick Henry, Titans vs. Jaguars ($6,900)
Henry gets a modest price bump after topping 5X value against the Chiefs before Tennessee’s bye. The Titans trailed late against both KC and Carolina, and Henry still averaged more than 30 DK points and 20 touches during the recent two-game stretch.
RB Derrius Guice, Washington vs. Lions ($4,700)
Guice hit 14 DK points on eight touches last week, and I’ll bet that his second game back will involve more work than that first go off injury. This bet on increased volume could pay dividends against a team allowing the most DraftKings points to running backs.
WR Julio Jones, Falcons vs. Buccaneers ($8,000)
Gotta stack Matty Ice with Julio, so here we are. No team allows more DraftKings points to receivers than the Bucs. Monitor the statuses for Devonta Freeman (foot) and Austin Hooper (knee), as they would command more targets than their understudies.
WR Mike Evans, Buccaneers @ Falcons ($7,300)
We’ll run back our Falconsstackwith the air yards star of 2019. Evans’ 1,510 air yards dusts the runner-up by over 300 yards.
WR Calvin Ridley, Falcons vs. Buccaneers ($6,500)
My favorite part about this Ryan stack is that the funnel has become so defined since the Falcons’ bye. Over the past two weeks, Ridley (37 percent) and Julio (43) combine for over two-thirds of the team’sair yards. Theyeach rank top 15in air yards market share, with no other combo in that echelon.
TE Greg Olsen, Panthers @ Saints ($4,100)
Olsen ranks third in both receiving yards and air yards among TEs since Week 9, and we’d like Kyle Allen to keep YOLO-ing. With Carolina entering the Superdome as two-score dogs, crank up the pass volume.
FLEX Demaryius Thomas, Jets vs. Raiders ($3,800)
The Sam Darnold revival has surprisingly benefited Thomas rather than Robby Anderson. No Gang Green player has seen more targets than Thomas’ 17 over the past two weeks. The underdog Jetscould be forced to throw from behind against Oakland, who allow the third-most DK points to receivers.
D/ST Dolphins @ Browns ($2,000)
We’re really digging deep at FLEX and team defense with this lineup, and I feel more comfortable doing it on the defensive side due to the relative lack of predictability in D/ST scoring. Hitting just eight points gives us 4X value here, and Baker Mayfield has thrown the third-most picks and taken the eighth-most sacks.