ESNY 2020 MLB Mock Draft: How to scout without a season

OMAHA, NE - JUNE 25: Austin Martin #16 of the Vanderbilt Commodores gets thrown out at first base in the third inning against the Michigan Wolverines during game two of the College World Series Championship Series on June 25, 2019 at TD Ameritrade Park Omaha in Omaha, Nebraska. MLB Draft

The MLB Draft is less than a week away. That means it’s time to put the rumors together and try to piece together what is sure to be a messy draft. 

Kyle Newman

The 2020 MLB Draft is just days away and this draft is special for a number of reasons. It’s only going to be five rounds, which limits teams’ bonus pools. Scouting is as scarce as possible with no high school baseball being played in 2020 and only a limited number of college games. It also shouldn’t be understated that the Houston Astros lack of a first-round pick could change the shape of the class.

With so many new variables in play for 2020, this is likely to be a messy draft. High school players demanding higher signing bonuses, college players threatening to return to school, and teams trying to avoid high signing bonuses due to COVID-19 related salary losses. All of that could come into play shaping a truly unique draft.

Despite the concerns, MLB is pushing ahead with the draft. That makes the 2020 MLB Draft the most unpredictable in a long time. That hasn’t stopped analysts from trying to figure just how it could play out.

1. Detroit Tigers – Spencer Torkelson, 1B, Arizona State

Spencer Torkelson is set to become the first first baseman to go first overall since Adrian Gonzalez in 2000. Say that five times fast.

Torkelson is an electric hitter. He has plus-plus contact and power. He has the potential to carry the Tigers lineup into the future as a legitimate replacement for Miguel Cabrera’s bat. That’s the kind of potential he has. He’s an average fielder, so he likely won’t be relegated to DHing making him a stronger asset.

The only thing that could stand in the way of Torkelson going first overall is the signing bonus. Torkelson will want the full-slot value and there’s talk the Tigers might not want to pay that. If that’s the case they could draft Asa Lacy first overall and ink him to a slightly under-slot deal. The chances of that are remote, but it’s still something to keep in mind.

2. Baltimore Orioles – Austin Martin, 3B/OF, Vanderbilt

With Austin Martin, the Orioles are getting the best overall player in the 2020 draft class. He doesn’t have Torkelson’s upside, but he’s a more well-rounded player.

Martin has a plus-plus hit tool that carries him offensively. His power is only average and that’s not likely to change. He provides extra value with his above-average speed that could make Martin a potential 20-20 threat.

Defensively, Martin could play third base or center field. The current projection is he’ll play center field where his speed is put to better use. It’ll also help him cover up an average arm. He should be above-average in center when all is said and done. His versatility is something to keep in mind though, as it gives the Orioles flexibility.

The only roadblock here is a potential under-slot deal. Orioles GM Mike Elias has taken under-slot players at the top of the draft before to great success. There’s talk he could look to do that here with the Orioles targeting over-slot players at 30 and 39. If the Orioles go that route, two names to keep in mind are Nick Gonzales and Heston Kjerstad. This is more likely than the Tigers passing on Torkelson, but the smart money is still on Martin being the pick.

3. Miami Marlins – Asa Lacy, LHP, Mississippi State

The Marlins have the easiest pick in the draft. They get to take the one remaining top-three player in the class. That’s likely to be Asa Lacy.

Lacy has clear ace level potential. He dominated in summer leagues and in the SEC before the season was cut short. He has a plus fastball, slider, and changeup. His curveball lags a little behind as an above-average pitch. The only concern with his makeup is his potential control issues, as he only grades out as having average control.

Given his elite stuff as a lefty, it’s clear why teams are in love with Lacy. Even if his control doesn’t improve he’ll still be able to miss bats because of his electric breaking stuff.

The Marlins will take whoever falls here. If Lacy goes first overall to the Tigers, that means Martin will be the pick here. If the Orioles go under-slot before this pick it’s likely the Marlins prioritize the bat and take Martin. They’d jump on Torkelson if he falls this far, but that’s incredibly unlikely.

4. Kansas City Royals – Zac Veen, OF, Spruce Creek HS (FL)

Zac Veen is the likely pick here. After the Royals spent years collecting college pitching they’ve moved to adding bats. In 2019, they added the top high school bat in Bobby Witt Jr. and except them to do so again in 2020 with Veen.

There is no clear weakness in Veen’s profile. He got above-average hit and power tools that have the potential to grow as his body fills out and his approach improves. He has average speed now, but that’s almost certain to drop as his body fills out.

Veen will play center field when he gets drafted, but he’ll likely have to move to a corner spot later on. His bat and his above-average arm profile well for a corner outfield spot making the transition an easy one. He should be a plus defender in right field when all’s said and done.

If the Royals don’t go Veen look for them to return to their college pitching roots. Two players that stick out as possibilities are Emerson Hancock and Max Meyer.

5. Toronto Blue Jays – Max Meyer, RHP, Minnesota

Speaking of Max Meyer, if he were two inches taller he’d be the first overall pick. The Blue Jays steal the short pitching prospect as they add to their already stacked stable of young stars.

Meyer stands only 6-foot and that hurts his draft stock more than anything else. His fastball is elite, and his slider is the single best pitch in the 2020 draft class. He also throws an above-average change-up. Meyer also has plus control.

Meyer might shoot up to the majors in a shortened season this year. He would join the bullpen where he would no doubt excel with his fastball and slider. There are questions about his height limiting his potential as a starter but even in the bullpen, Meyer stands to be one of the best closers in baseball.

If the Blue Jays pass on Meyer look for them to select a different college arm. Emerson Hancock stands out as the most likely alternative.

6. Seattle Mariners – Emerson Hancock, RHP, Georgia

Emerson Hancock was the top prospect in this class coming into the season. He had established himself in 2019, but an injury cost him his summer, and COVID-19 cost him the chance to show his stuff again in 2020.

Hancock excels with his sinker and his changeup, which are both plus pitchers. His slider and curveball both lag slightly behind as above-average. His control is excellent grading out as plus.

The big concern that teams have with Hancock is his health and whether he’s really recovered from his 2019 injury. The Mariners are likely his floor because the raw stuff is simply too good, but don’t be surprised if Hancock is the shock fall of the 2020 draft.

If the Mariners go another direction look for Nick Gonzales to be the pick. The Mariners are lacking up the middle talent in their organization and Gonzales fills that hole while being one of the safest players in the class.

7. Pittsburgh Pirates – Heston Kjerstad, OF, Arkansas

The Pirates take an under-slot deal at seven so they can go over-slot at 31. The possibility of this happening has been talked about repeatedly and seems like a decent bet at this point. Heston Kjerstad is the most likely option if the Pirates take this route.

Kjerstad is a power-hitting corner outfielder. He’s carried by his plus power that should lead to 30-plus home runs. The big concern is his fringe-average hit tool. There will be a lot of strikeouts and a lower batting average than many are comfortable with. Kjerstad represents a three true outcome player.

Defensively Kjerstad’s speed limits his defensive potential, but his plus arm makes up for it. He should be an average defensive right fielder.

If the Pirates take someone at slot value it’ll be Nick Gonzales who represents excellent value at seven.

8. San Diego Padres – Nick Gonzales, 2B, New Mexico State

The Padres get the first huge value get in the 2020 draft. They’re said to be looking at potentially taking a high school bat at eight, but if a great value like Gonzales falls into their lap there’s no way they can pass on him.

Gonzales falls because he’s limited to second base and he likely won’t be a good defensive player. His fringe-average defense at one of the least valuable positions combined with average speed limits his upside.

The reason he’s such an excellent value pick is his bat. He’s got a plus-plus hit tool and average power. He could be one of the best offensive second basemen in all of baseball if he hits his ceiling. That more than makes up for the defense.

If the Padres go another direction, look at high school bats. Robert Hassell is someone they’ve been heavily connected to.

9. Colorado Rockies – Robert Hassell, OF, Independence HS (TN)

The Rockies end the run on college players with Hassell. The Rockies have been known to take chances on high school talent before, and aren’t in on the pitchers left on the board. That makes Hassell an easy choice.

Hassell is a true center fielder without much room to grow. His body is mostly filled out already, which lends to his advanced approach at the plate. Hassell has plus contact ability and above-average power. He also has above-average speed that could help turn him into a 20-20 threat, or more at Coors Field.

His speed and above-average arm help Hassell be an above-average defensive center fielder. His ability to stay there long terms is the reason he’s going before other more polished prospects.

If Hassell isn’t the pick look for the Rockies to go safer and take Patrick Bailey. The addition of Bailey would also give the Rockies a catching prospect, they don’t currently have a catcher in their top 30 prospects.

10. Los Angeles Angels – Reid Detmers, LHP, Louisville

The Angels have the unique opportunity to take a player who could help them make a playoff run with their draft pick. With a shortened season and extended rosters, some players will get the chance to shot straight to the majors. Look for the Angels to take advantage of that by selecting a pitcher.

Reid Detmers is the typical college lefty. Detmers doesn’t have ace potential, but he should be a middle of the rotation arm with the potential to be a No. 2. He has an above-average fastball and curveball that carries his profile. He also throws an average changeup.

His fastball and curveball combined with his above-average control should make Detmers an immediate threat out of the bullpen in 2020.

If the Angels go a different direction look for other quick-moving prospects like Patrick Bailey or Garrett Crochet.

11. Chicago White Sox – Patrick Bailey, C, North Carolina State

The White Sox make Patrick Bailey the first catcher off the board in the 2020 draft. Bailey adds to the White Sox already impressive prospect depth by adding the only thing they didn’t have, a catcher.

Bailey is a defense-first catcher. He has an above-average arm and plays plus defense behind the plate. His defensive profile makes him a safe bet to make the majors.

He has some questions offensively with only fringe-average contact ability and average power. That isn’t a huge concern now. Catchers almost always develop defensively before they do offensively.

The White Sox could also be on the lookout for college pitching at this spot.

12. Cincinnati Reds – Austin Hendrick, OF, West Allegheny HS (PA)

The Reds take the biggest gamble in the draft to this point with Hendrick. The soon to be 19-year-old is one of the oldest high school players in the draft class. That’s scared teams enough for Hendrick to slide this far.

Hendrick’s advanced age comes with some perks. His body is filled out and it’s impressive. Hendrick has plus power, the best in the high school class, and above-average speed. That combo is sure to make some team drool. Hendrick also has an above-average arm and should be an above-average center fielder.

The worry is about Hendrick’s hit tool, which is only average and has a ton of swing and miss. That could limit his offensive potential. There’s also the worry that Hendrick was simply taking advantage of playing lesser competition due to his age.

If the Reds go another direction look at high school pitching, notably Mick Abel.

13. San Francisco Giants – Tyler Soderstrom, C/3B, Turlock HS (CA)

This is as close to a lock as any pick this late in the draft can be. The Giants have been connected to Tyler Soderstrom for months and things don’t seem to be changing.

Soderstrom boasts an advanced approach at the plate for his age, which is why he has a plus hit tool. He’s also got average power that plays better at catcher than third base.

He struggles defensively. He has a cannon for an arm but doesn’t have the speed for the outfield. That’s left his teams figuring out where to play him. He’s played both catcher and third base, but his below-average defense behind the plate has many believing he’ll play third base at the next level. He has a long way to go defensively at either position.

Expect the Giants to go high school bat in some form here.

14. Texas Rangers – Garrett Crochet, LHP, Tennessee

This another common connection. The Rangers tend to lean on safer college options early in the draft and Crochet fits that bill better than most.

Crochet has a plus-plus fastball that carries his profile. He pairs it with two above-average breaking balls in his changeup and his slider. His stuff is excellent from the left side, but it’s weighed down by other concerns.

Crochet has a history of injuries and his control has been an issue. If both things continue to be true, Crochet may be looking at a permanent switch to the bullpen.

If the Rangers go another direction expect them to make a shock grab for a high school player that fell or Nick Bitsko.

15. Philadelphia Phillies – Cade Cavalli, RHP, Oklahoma

The Phillies could go anywhere with this pick. A college pitcher seems to make sense from an organizational standpoint. Someone who can help immediately in 2020, especially in the bullpen, would be a perfect fit.

Cade Cavalli could be that guy. He has a plus fastball and plus curveball that would play up in the bullpen making him a dangerous weapon. He also has an above-average slider and average changeup that he uses as a starter.

The biggest concern with Cavalli is his fringe-average control. That wouldn’t be as big an issue coming out of the bullpen. He has the potential to be a mid-rotation starter, but he may play best in the backend of the bullpen.

The Phillies likely won’t target high school pitching here, but anything else is up for grabs.

16. Chicago Cubs – Carmen Mlodzinski, RHP, South Carolina

Carmen Mlodzinski is one of the fastest risers in this draft class. With a stellar summer showcase in 2019 and a strong start to 2020 before the season got shut down, Mldozinski has been flying up boards. With the Cubs looking to add a faster riser to their system, a player like Mldozinski is a perfect fit.

Mlodzinski doesn’t have the greatest raw stuff. He has a plus fastball and two above-average breaking balls, a slider, and a changeup. The three-pitch combo makes it likely that Mlodzinski is ticketed for a middle of the rotation spot.

The big issue is his control, which was a major issue in his first year in college and in high school. He fixed that during the summer of 2019 and looks raring to go.

Look for the Cubs to go with a college player here. they’re looking for someone who can rise through the system quickly.

17. Boston Red Sox – Mick Abel, RHP, Jesuit HS (OR)

The Red Sox are looking to rebuild a weak farm system. Taking the best high school pitcher in the class will help.

Mick Abel is a huge kid with room to grow. He stands at 6-foot-5 and only 190 pounds. Despite, the size he’s still throwing mid-90s. By the time his body fills out Abel could be throwing high-90s into triple digits with regularity.

He compliments his fastball with an above-average changeup and slider. He also throws an average curveball that will likely either be refined or scraped all together at the next level.

The raw stuff is tantalizing, but what makes Abel special is his above-average control and polish at such a young age. There’s next to no doubt that Abel will find a role as a starting pitcher at the next level because of it.

The risk comes in the form of injury and consistency as is true with any high school pitcher. They are the riskiest draft group in MLB and they have tended to slide in recent drafts because of it.

If the Abel is off the board look for the Red Sox to take a chance on another high ceiling prospect like Nick Bitsko, Pete Crow-Armstrong, or Garrett Mitchell.

18. Arizona Diamondbacks – Nick Bitsko, RHP, Central Bucks East HS (PA)

The Arizona Diamondbacks take the biggest risk in the draft, as they did in 2019 with Brennan Malone. They select Nick Bitsko who is the fastest rising prospect in the draft out of nowhere.

Bitsko reclassified to the 2020 draft, leaving school early. He won’t turn 18 until a week after the draft. His shocking reclassification left many teams without much data on him. They hadn’t scouted him to extreme degrees in 2019 because they thought they’d have another year.

What little they do know is that his fastball has seen a huge jump. he went from throwing low-90s in 2019 to throwing mid to high 90s with regularity in 2020, as shown in his numerous social media videos that he’s made for scouts.

Bitsko also has a plus curveball thanks to a high spin rate, and throws an average changeup. He’s also incredibly polished for a player that’s played on two years of high school baseball.

If the Diamondbacks go another direction expect them to target a high school hitter. Pete Crow-Armstrong fits their archetype to a tee.

19. New York Mets – Pete Crow-Armstrong, OF, Harvard-Westlake HS (CA)

The New York Mets take the last top-tier high school bat in the first round. A year ago this time Pete Crow-Armstrong was the presumptive first pick in this draft. Now he’s just another member of a stacked high school outfield class.

Crow-Armstrong excels with his hit tool and his speed. Both of which are plus tools. What makes him special is his defense in center field, which is plus-plus in part due to an above-average. That makes him the best defensive outfielder in the class.

Crow-Armstrong has two big holes in the game that’s caused him to fall down boards. He lacks power, currently below-average, and he isn’t likely to grow into much more. The other is his lack of consistency. After making waves early in his high school career Crow-Armstrong struggled in his junior year and on the summer circuit.

2020 was supposed to be when he would put his name back on the map, but he wasn’t given the chance. That could play to the New York Mets’ benefit as they add some a much-needed outfielder to their system.

Expect that Mets to jump on any falling high school bat. If none of them make it this far, a distinct possibility, look for them to take advantage of the deep well of college pitchers.

20. Milwaukee Brewers – Garrett Mitchell, OF, UCLA

The Milwaukee Brewers get one of the strangest prospects in the class in Garrett Mitchell. The UCLA product has true five-tool potential. He also has some major drawbacks that make him a huge risk.

Mitchell doesn’t have a weakness in his tools. He has a plus hit tool, average power, elite speed, a plus arm, and is a plus defender in center field. If the draft was simply about upside and physical tools Mitchell might go No. 1.

The issues with Mitchell are plentiful. The two biggest on the field are his strikeout rate, which scares teams. They don’t like how aggressive he is at the plate and how much swing and miss is in his swing. It puts his plus hit tool at risk. His power is the other concern. Mitchell puts on a show in batting practice but has yet to make a mark with in-game power. Teams wonder if he ever will.

That normally wouldn’t be enough to keep a prospect of Mitchell’s caliber out of the top-10, but add in that Mitchell has type-one Diabetes and things get more complicated. No player in MLB has ever succeeded with the disease making teams incredibly wary.

Look for the Brewers to take a toolsy player here. They love advanced stats metrics like exit-velocity, spin rate, and launch angle. They’ll find a player with the tools to match.

21. St. Louis Cardinals – Ed Howard, SS, Mount Carmel HS (IL)

The St. Louis Cardinals have made a routine out of taking high ceiling high school players in round one. They do it more often than not, and 2020 isn’t likely to be an exception. With that in mind, Ed Howard is the best high school middle infielder in this class.

Howard is a defense-first prospect. He’s a plus defender with an above-average arm. He also adds above-average speed that should make him a threat on the base paths.

He’s weak offensively with his power and hit tools both being average. That should be more than enough to carry his strong glove to the majors.

Look for the Cardinals to either go high school bat or college arm.

22. Washington Nationals – Cole Wilcox, RHP, Georgia

The Nationals do what they always do, they take a falling pitcher represented by Scott Boras. Cole Wilcox could easily go before this spot but falls due to a lack of production before the 2020 season.

There aren’t many in this class who can go toe-to-toe with Wilcox’s stuff. He has a plus-plus fastball and two above-average breaking balls, a slider, and a changeup. He has legitimate ace upside with his raw talent.

Wilcox does carry two huge negatives. His control was some of the worst in this class in 2019. He got it under control in his four starts in 2020, but that’s too small a sample size for teams to make a judgment off of. Wilcox also doesn’t have a history of strong performance as he was not good in 2019, though he was excellent in his few starts in 2020.

Look for the Nationals to target high upside college arms that are sliding due to injury or inconsistency.

23. Cleveland Indians – Jared Kelley, RHP, Refugio HS (TX)

The Indians embrace the risk of the draft unlike any other team. They actively seek out high school arms, specifically those who were top prospects that fall to them. Jared Kelley fits the bill in 2020.

Kelley has stellar stuff. He has a plus-plus fastball, a plus changeup, and an above-average slider. he pairs that with above-average control for his age. His body has already filled out leaving little room for projection but also making him less of a risk than other high school pitchers. So why has he fallen to 23?

Kelley doesn’t fit the new age model of scouting pitching. Scouts rely heavily on stats like spin rate, barrel rate, and exit velocity. Kelley doesn’t do well with those stats. His spin rate is below average and that can lead to him being hit hard at times despite his great stuff.

The Indians usually ignore those flags and take the pitchers anyway trusting their ability to develop them. A tried and true method that has turned them into a pitching prospect factory.

Look for the Indians to target the best high school pitcher on the board.

24. Tampa Bay Rays – Bryce Jarvis, RHP, Duke

The Rays system is so stacked that they can afford to do anything with this pick. That allows them to strike an under-slot deal with an older college pitcher who has shot up draft boards in Bryce Jarvis.

Jarvis is already 22, and if he waits another year will be 23 going on 24. He may not be a senior, but he doesn’t have the option to go back to school like most juniors.

Jarvis’ stuff took a huge jumper forward in his four starts in 2020. he went from an average fastball with average breaking stuff to having strong stuff. His fastball gained five MPH and became a plus pitch, his changeup took another step as well becoming a plus pitch. Jarvis’ slider and curveball aren’t as strong, but both are above-average pitches. He’s also one of the most polished pitchers in the class and knows how to throw strikes.

The question is whether or not Jarvis’ stuff was real. He was amazing in his four starts in 2020 throwing a perfect game and threw seven one-hit innings in another start. No matter how amazing those four games were they were still just four games.

The Rays have the opportunity to buy into Jarvis and find out if he was real by giving him an under-slot deal and putting those savings into pick 37.

The Rays could do anything with this pick. Look for them to make the most versatile move they can here. Either making an under-slot deal or taking a player who could fill one of many needs.

25. Atlanta Braves – Justin Foscue, 2B, Missippi State

The Braves take a rising college bat with a high floor in Justin Foscue. They gave up two picks by signing Will Smith in free agency, giving them the third smallest bonus pool. That’s going to narrow their choices at 25.

Justin Foscue is a safe bet, but little more. He’s got an average hit and power tool. He’s been compared to Jeff Kent offensively. Someone who is going to hit for around 20 home runs and around .270 for the majority of their career. He’s also average defensively and isn’t likely to play any position other than second base due to his average arm and below-average speed.

His biggest knock is his lack of ceiling. Foscue likely won’t be an All-Star one day. He will likely be a major league regular at second base. The question is how much a league-average second baseman is really worth in modern baseball.

Look for the Braves to take a safe player at 25. They don’t have enough money to spend to take risks that could sink the entire draft class.

26. Oakland Athletics – Dillon Dingler, C, Ohio State

The Oakland A’s love going college players. Dillon Dingler gives them a college player with upside and athleticism that should make Billy Beane’s mouth water.

Dingler was a center fielder up until his sophomore year that Ohio State. His switch to catcher turned out to be a boon as he fits the position like a glove. With just one year behind the plate, Dingler has already shown to be an above-average defender, and that should only get better as he gains experience. It doesn’t hurt that he as a plus-plus arm.

Dingler is a little bit of a question mark at the plate. He’s demonstrated some power, but not enough to get excited about him being a power hit at the next level. He’s also hit for good average, but his approach at the plate scares team. The not thing he has that makes him special among catchers is his plus speed. He will likely be the fastest catcher in the majors whenever he gets there.

2020 was the best season of his career and that only came in 13 games. He hit a career-high in home runs, his batting average was up 50 points, and his OPS was up 350 points. He looked like a whole new hitter. Is that the real Dingler? If it is he could be one of the steals of the draft.

Look for the A’s to target a college bat here. Jordan Westburg is a name to watch.

27. Minnesota Twins – Clayton Beeter, RHP, Texas Tech

The Twins take a huge risk by taking the injury-prone Clayton Beeter. The advanced stats love him and the Twins are all about those numbers.

Beeter has some of the best spin rates in the class. It makes his curveball one of the best breaking pitches in the class. It also allows his fastball to play up from its mediocre low-to-mid 90s numbers. Beeter has a plus fastball, curve, and slider because of his high spin rates. He also throws an average changeup that lags well behind his other pitches.

If not for the spin rate it’s hard to see any team taking a chance on Beeter let alone in the first round. He’s had two serious elbow surgeries in two years. He got his first chance as a starter in 2020, and he was impressive in his four starts. So impressive that he jumped from off many boards potentially into the back of the first round.

Beeter struggles with his command at times, but that’s to be expected of a pitcher with as many elbow issues as he has. When he’s on though, Beeter looks as good as any college arm in the class.

Expect the Twins to target a college player with strong advanced metrics. Another name to keep an eye on is Aaron Sabato.

28. New York Yankees – Bobby Miller, RHP, Louisville

The Yankees have been connected to Bobby Miller for a while now. They are said to love his fastball and could look to make him the second Louisville pitcher off the board in the first round.

Miller has a heavy fastball. The pitch is plus-plus and sits in the high 90s and has hit as high as 99. It’s one of the best fastballs in the draft class, it’s an easy pitch to fall in love with. The questions with Miller are bout everything else.

His slider and changeup are both just average pitches. Neither is a true strikeout pitch and leaves Miller with only one above-average pitch. His delivery requires a ton of effort and that leads to control issues and could lead to injury issues down the line.

It’s likely Miller is ticketed for a major league bullpen, but the Yankees are fine with that. They have taken to the modern use of the bullpen better than any other team in baseball. It doesn’t hurt that his fastball could play up into the triple digits coming out of the pen. He could even be ready to contribute a few innings as early as this season.

Look for the Yankees to go with a safe college player in the first round after sacrificing two picks for Gerrit Cole.

29. Los Angeles Dodgers – J.T. Ginn, RHP, Mississippi State

The Dodgers round out the first round the same way they did in 2018, with J.T. Ginn. The sequel likely won’t turn out like the first time as Ginn is primed to sign after undergoing Tommy John surgery in March.

Ginn was primed to be a top-10 pick in the draft before blowing up his elbow in March. The Tommy John surgery has shot his draft stock and could lead to a massive draft day tumble with only a few teams willing to take such an injury risk.

The Dodgers are in a position to do so, and they already drafted Ginn once. Ginn has electric stuff when healthy, a plus fastball, plus slider, and a plus changeup. Those three pitches ensure that so long as he’s healthy Ginn will be a starting pitcher.

Ginn has some control issues, but the major issue is his recent injury history. He won’t be able to pitch in 2020 if needed and he might not be ready until a few months into 2021 missing even more valuable development time.

It’ll take a team that knows Ginn well and trusts in his ceiling to make the call on his selection, who better than a team that already took that chance once.

Look for the Dodgers to target sliding players. They’ll likely jump on any top-end talent that manages to make it this far with little regard for injuries or inconsistencies.

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